Week 28 is upon us and things are hotting up. Liverpool are still top, just, and the fantasy leagues are getting close as well. I’ve been wondering when to use my wildcard, it was almost this week but I held off.
With 10 games to go after this game week I need to start planning when the chips will be used and who to select, especially with double game weeks coming along. I will add some more analysis and charts from Power BI in the coming days to show you what I have found.
I have also changed the Python ETL scripts, I feel I need to spend some time going over those with you as they are quite good now 🙂
Anyway its time for a coffee.
Where has the time gone, its already week 26, loads of things have happened, my team is doing ok, the Power BI dashboards are coming along and the data feeds have changed quite a bit.
Over the coming weeks I hope to blog a lot more regularly and show more of the stuff I’m doing in Power BI
Some of the data I have modelled and will end up in Power BI looks like this, basically its the new prediction algorithm 🙂
I’m also looking at using more DAX as currently I do a lot at the DB layer.
As a point of interest I use Power BI to show me which players to watch out for in the fantasy league.
back to the data.
Well, my 4 point hit in Game week 13 didn’t work out. Mind you there were quite a few players that let me down, so its onwards and upwards to GW14. I have modified the data model for the football data again and created some new dashboards. The mods were adding more data and fixing a few bugs so I’m hoping it gives me some form of advantage.
The new dashboards look like this.
This gives me a summary of goals, assists, overall minutes played etc.
I can also split by position.
There are some additional pieces of data I want to add to the charts like Total points to assist me in selecting my next transfers.
anyway, its back to the stats and working on the next dashboards 🙂
Week 13 is almost upon us and I have made some changes to the data model. The table below shows the top players overall based on the previous four weeks, but now it includes the probable result of the next game.
If we look at a player we can now see their opponent and the percentage of a probable home, away or draw result. Everton are showing as a 55% chance of a home win. Lets look at the actual stats.
- Everton P6, W4, D1, L1, Scored 12, Conceded 6
- Cardiff P5, W0, D1, L4, Scored 2, conceded 11
All of a sudden the 55% is looking good. This influenced my transfer this week. I had already done my free transfer but when I saw B.Silva was not playing I decided to go for Richarlison and take a four point hit, but I’m expecting a goal fest at Goodison park :).
I have done lots of work on the data model so expect some good charts over the coming weeks as now I can concentrate on the visuals.
Anyway its back to the data.
In an earlier post I mentioned selling Salah and Aguero to free up funds, well, after some playing with stats I have predicted the season ending scores for the various positions. Currently this is in beta so subject to change. Here are my findings.
My current goalies will end up as 4th and 10th, so I can leave them for now.
I have three of the top six defenders.
I have three of the top six Midfielders
I have one of the top five forwards.
I also have a player that has hardly played so bench boost will be fun.
Even if I sell Salah or Aguero I cant get in the players I need, oh well, I could sell Salah and B.Silva and re-invest in Sterling and Mane. Decisions, I think I will wait till after this week.
I am expecting big things from Salah this week, considering Fulham have conceded 16 goals and Liverpool have scored 12 and Liverpool will want to bounce back from their midweek defeat I want to see 5, a Salah hattrick would be nice. Should I do a free hit and include Firmino and Mane for this week, now that’s a thought.
More details on how I got to these figures will be explained in the coming weeks.
The joys of deciding on transfers each week takes some time. The decision this week is do I sell one of the big players to free up funds or stick with them. Not sure. Lets look at an option.
Sell Salah and Aguero and buy someone else, but whom. Both these players have home fixtures, Liverpool against Fulham and City against United. The stats are also showing both players in the upturn so it may be best to wait another week, especially as international week is coming up.
I need to look at the data in more depth, I will update the blog tonight with more info and also my real options on whom I’m going for.
Week 10 is over and the stats are coming in thick and fast. The new Power BI charts are hopefully going to give me some useful insights. As always I’m still going through the data so any inaccuracies are based on not fully tested data sets 🙂
This chart shows points by all positions by game weeks. Obviously with Power BI I can click the options to see different things.
This chart is showing overall points by teams. Some interesting things have come to light. Man United’s defence has come out as one of the worse performing defences in terms of points but their midfield is one of the best.
In this chart we can see the players, its quite busy mind you. Need some filters.
still some work to do but it is showing some good things.
I have also done some form guides based on the previous 4 games. If we look at defenders Doherty is still No 1 but that’s because of the two weeks he got 12 & 15. Some work to do on this chart I believe.
If we look at Midfielders it looks a bit more accurate. Some possible candidates for transfers here. Hazard is still in 5th place even though he didn’t play this week.
I will take a look at the stats a little more before I actually make my decision on the transfers.
Lets look at two possible transfers. Is it worth a risk, possibly, but I will wait.
back to the stats.
Week 10 is almost upon us and my weekly dilemma of who to transfer out and in. My really cheap forward stays for now as I cant get anyone better,and looking at the top 25 players for game week 6 to 9 dhows no bargains really. So this could be the first week I don’t do a transfer and do two next game week. Mind you I was tempted by Steve Cook out and Zabaleta in, but I’m not sure.
Over the next few weeks more stats are going to be blended to hopefully show some good stats so watch this space.
My captains choice is between the main three players in my team. Salah, Aguero or Hazard.
I’m going for Salah but according to the predictive stats Salah is due a bad week, but with Liverpool playing Home to Cardiff I’m over ruling the stats 🙂 Lets see what happens.
As I mentioned before blending additional data will include fixtures so hopefully team form will assist in predicting the results better.
Anyway its time to run some more stats
Week 9 is almost here, that seemed like a long international break but it gave me some time to look at what I’m doing with my team. The main question appears to be around Salah, keep or transfer. Looking at the stats it was an easy question for me to answer, considering he is close to where he was this time last season. So I have decided to keep him and considering Liverpool’s next two Premiership fixtures are Away to Huddersfield and home to Cardiff I’m going to make him captain.
Mo’s stats look like this’
I do need him to start scoring soon though if the gap between this season and last gets to big I will need to sell and re-invest.
But who would I re-invest in? KDB springs to mind 🙂
Watch this space
One other thing to bear in mind is that for the period game weeks 5 to 8 Salah is currently 25th position for Midfielders, Hazard is number 1.
By 7pm tonight I will know if my Salah as Captain pays off or not 🙂
Playing with the data and seeing how teams and players are shaping up. The data shows Overall for last season and where they are in the current season compared to the same time last season. Its quite interesting.
Disclaimer: I’m still checking the data 🙂
Here are some of the team level dashboards.
Doing better overall than last season.
Doing better than last season, mainly down to the defence the other positions are quite close.
Very similar to last season.
Oh dear, very poor.
Doing worse than last season.
Doing worse than last season.
So what does this tell us. At the team level we can use those figures to help us drill down to Player level. This will show us the possible picks who will make a difference. Otherwise the teas are going to look quite similar, everyone going for Salah, Aguero, Kane, Hazard, Alonso, Robertson you get the picture.
Over the coming weeks I need to blend this data with fixtures to come up with my killer list of players to pick and when to pick them. Look out Mini Leagues I’m on the charge.