Musings over week 12 picks

In an earlier post I mentioned selling Salah and Aguero to free up funds, well, after some playing with stats I have predicted the season ending scores for the various positions. Currently this is in beta so subject to change. Here are my findings.

My current goalies will end up as 4th and 10th, so I can leave them for now.

I have three of the top six defenders.

I have three of the top six Midfielders

I have one of the top five forwards.

I also have a player that has hardly played so bench boost will be fun.

Even if I sell Salah or Aguero I cant get in the players I need, oh well,  I could sell Salah and B.Silva and re-invest in Sterling and Mane. Decisions, I think I will wait till after this week.

I am expecting big things from Salah this week, considering Fulham have conceded 16 goals and Liverpool have scored 12 and Liverpool will want to bounce back from their midweek defeat I want to see 5, a Salah hattrick would be nice. Should I do a free hit and include Firmino and Mane for this week, now that’s a thought.

More details on how I got to these figures will be explained in the coming weeks.

 

 

Week 12 – Big Decisions

The joys of deciding on transfers each week takes some time. The decision this week is do I sell one of the big players to free up funds or stick with them. Not sure. Lets look at an option.

Sell Salah and Aguero and buy someone else, but whom. Both these players have home fixtures, Liverpool against Fulham and City against United.  The stats are also showing both players in the upturn so it may be best to wait another week, especially as international week is coming up.

I need to look at the data in more depth, I will update the blog tonight with more info and also my real options on whom I’m going for.

 

 

 

Post Week 10 analysis

Week 10 is over and the stats are coming in thick and fast. The new Power BI charts are hopefully going to give me some useful insights. As always I’m still going through the data so any inaccuracies are based on not fully tested data sets 🙂

This chart shows points by all positions by game weeks. Obviously with Power BI I can click the options to see different things.

This chart is showing overall points by teams. Some interesting things have come to light. Man United’s defence has come out as one of the worse performing defences in terms of points but their midfield is one of the best.

In this chart we can see the players, its quite busy mind you. Need some filters.

still some work to do but it is showing some good things.

I have also done some form guides based on the previous 4 games. If we look at defenders Doherty is still No 1 but that’s because of the two weeks he got 12 & 15.  Some work to do on this chart I believe.

If we look at Midfielders it looks a bit more accurate.  Some possible candidates for transfers here.  Hazard is still in 5th place even though he didn’t play this week.

I will take a look at the stats a little more before I actually make my decision on the transfers.

Lets look at two possible transfers. Is it worth a risk, possibly, but I will wait.

back to the stats.

 

 

 

 

 

Week 10

Week 10 is almost upon us and my weekly dilemma of who to transfer out and in. My really cheap forward stays for now as I cant get anyone better,and looking at the top 25 players for game week 6 to 9 dhows no bargains really. So this could be the first week I don’t do a transfer and do two next game week. Mind you I was tempted by Steve Cook out and Zabaleta in, but I’m not sure.

 

Over the next few weeks more stats are going to be blended to hopefully show some good stats so watch this space.

My captains choice is between the main three players in my team. Salah, Aguero or Hazard.

Hazard

Salah

Aguero

I’m going for Salah but according to the predictive stats Salah is due a bad week, but with Liverpool playing Home to Cardiff I’m over ruling the stats 🙂 Lets see what happens.

As I mentioned before blending additional data will include fixtures so hopefully team form will assist in predicting the results better.

Anyway its time to run some more stats

Week 9 – Mo Salah or No Salah

Week 9 is almost here, that seemed like a long international break but it gave me some time to look at what I’m doing with my team. The main question appears to be around Salah, keep or transfer. Looking at the stats it was an easy question for me to answer, considering he is close to where he was this time last season. So I have decided to keep him and considering Liverpool’s next two Premiership fixtures are Away to Huddersfield and home to Cardiff I’m going to make him captain.

Mo’s stats look like this’

I do need him to start scoring soon though if the gap between this season and last gets to big I will need to sell and re-invest.

But who would I re-invest in? KDB springs to mind 🙂

Watch this space

One other thing to bear in mind is that for the period game weeks 5 to 8 Salah is currently 25th position for Midfielders, Hazard is number 1.

By 7pm tonight I will know if my Salah as Captain pays off or not 🙂

 

 

Looking forward to week 8

Playing with the data and seeing how teams and players are shaping up. The data shows Overall for last season and where they are in the current season compared to the same time last season. Its quite interesting.

Disclaimer: I’m still checking the data 🙂

Here are some of the team level dashboards.

Chelsea

Doing better overall than last season. 

Liverpool

Doing better than last season, mainly down to the defence the other positions are quite close.

Man city

Very similar to last season. 

Man Utd

Oh dear, very poor.

Spurs

Doing worse than last season.

Arsenal

Doing worse than last season.

So what does this tell us. At the team level we can use those figures to help us drill down to Player level. This will show us the possible picks who will make a difference. Otherwise the teas are going to look quite similar, everyone going for Salah, Aguero, Kane, Hazard, Alonso, Robertson you get the picture.

Over the coming weeks I need to blend this data with fixtures to come up with my killer list of players to pick and when to pick them. Look out Mini Leagues I’m on the charge.

 

 

First 7 weeks over

Well, its been an age since I last posted, In reality I have been busy building posh garden buildings and getting the data sorted so here is a brief look at what to expect.

The dashboard is a little plain at the moment but this will change. The new dashboards will highlight how players are doing against previous seasons. If we look at Mo Salah his ownership has gone from a high of 54% down to 45% but his stats are not far off last season, maybe the fact that Hazard is doing so well people are getting rid of Salah for Hazard. I’

I’m going to give it a few more weeks before I decide on what to do.

This is only a quick post but the next few will show some great stats which will help on player selection.

Looking forward to Game week 2

Well, I made my transfer and I went for a defender change. I almost held on for 2 transfers next week but I decided to go for it. I normally look forward a couple of weeks to look at the fixtures, but considering we are in the first few games I went for gut instinct, lets see how that works our 🙂

 

Looking at the stats and the news the vast movement appears to be based on Midfield and the change in ownership for KDB, he has dropped 9% since news broke about his injury and how long he could be out for. I compared him to three other midfielders and as you can see they went up by 2% in the same time.

Just a quick post as I’m still looking at the stats and working out which ones I want to show.

 

GW1 is over

After an interesting game week I thought I would highlight 4 players who did well.

  • Wan Bissaka -Crystal Palace, 12 points 90 minutes played.
  • Richarlison – Everton, 14 points 85 minutes played.
  • Neves – Wolves, 12 points 90 minutes played.
  • Mane – Liverpool, 16 points 81 minutes played

Unfortunately I had none of these players in my team, and I was only talking about Richarlison on Friday and saying what a good buy he is for Everton. Going into game week 2 I wont do my normal thing and look at using the wildcard. After the first week I have ended up with 55 points, 2 points above the average, need to do better.

As we can see after their performances their ownership went up, by quite a lot. What’s interesting is each percentage point equate to almost 50,000 Fantasy League players.

 

If we look at Richarlison and Mane and the first 6 games of last season we can see that

  • Richarlison scored 30 pts, scored 2 goals and 1 assist
  • Mane scored 20 points, scored 3 goals

So both look set to get a better score after 6 games.

There are quite a few players that appear to be doing better so I need to spend some time on the stats and work out my subs.

So here is to happy stats crunching.

The first game is almost over

The first game of the new season is almost over. United winning 2-0, correction 2-1, Vardy just scored.

I wondered how many people had actually selected Shaw. He scored the second so I will be carefully watching his stats over the coming days to see how many transfer him in.

As of now (21.45) this is the stats, he is one of the popular United defenders even though the ownership is less than 4%.

 

Looking at the averages he normally averages less than 60 pts a season, I think this season will be better.

I never panic in the first few weeks as that is the time to find out who is starting well, mind you I have used my wildcard in the first 3 weeks over the last few seasons so maybe I do panic.

A quick look at the ownership stats for today and especially during the game. It seems harry Maguire is losing ownership whilst Luke Shaw is gaining.

 

Anyway the first game is over, United won 2-1, bring on the next 9 fixtures.