Game week 1 – Goalies

I’m looking at last seasons early form for goalies, I know this doesn’t mean much but it gives me an indication of possible options. Last seasons early form keeper was Neil Etheridge from Cardiff, this was helped by two penalty saves in the first two games.

First 4 games 18/19;0

Just goes to show you don’t need the big keepers in the first few games 🙂 But some of these players have retired or been relegated so this is purely an indicator of what can happen.

I need to look at the data behind these stats so a new Power BI report is needed.

The next few weeks will be stats, stats and more stats but at least I have a draft team, which so far has changed many times.

New Season

And the new season is almost upon us. Last season I didn’t update the blog enough, but this season I intend to do at least one post a week 🙂

This weekend I intend to run some stats on early season form based on last season to help me pick my draft team so here goes another season of much hype which I hope will finish in some good placings in the fantasy leagues I enter.

Week 28

Week 28 is upon us and things are hotting up. Liverpool are still top, just, and the fantasy leagues are getting close as well. I’ve been wondering when to use my wildcard, it was almost this week but I held off.

With 10 games to go after this game week I need to start planning when the chips will be used and who to select, especially with double game weeks coming along. I will add some more analysis and charts from Power BI in the coming days to show you what I have found.

I have also changed the Python ETL scripts, I feel I need to spend some time going over those with you as they are quite good now 🙂

Anyway its time for a coffee.

Latest musings

Where has the time gone, its already week 26, loads of things have happened, my team is doing ok, the Power BI dashboards are coming along and the data feeds have changed quite a bit.

Over the coming weeks I hope to blog a lot more regularly and show more of the stuff I’m doing in Power BI

Some of the data I have modelled and will end up in Power BI looks like this, basically its the new prediction algorithm 🙂

I’m also looking at using more DAX as currently I do a lot at the DB layer.

As a point of interest I use Power BI to show me which players to watch out for in the fantasy league.

back to the data.

 

Week 14 is almost upon us

Well, my 4 point hit in Game week 13 didn’t work out. Mind you there were quite a few players that let me down, so its onwards and upwards to GW14. I have modified the data model for the football data again and created some new dashboards. The mods were adding more data and fixing a few bugs so I’m hoping it gives me some form of advantage.

The new dashboards look like this.

This gives me a summary of goals, assists, overall minutes played etc.

I can also split by position.

There are some additional pieces of data I want to add to the charts like Total points to assist me in selecting my next transfers.

anyway, its back to the stats and working on the next dashboards 🙂

 

Week 13 Picks

Week 13 is almost upon us and I have made some changes to the data model. The table below shows the top players overall based on the previous four weeks, but now it includes the probable result of the next game.

If we look at a player we can now see their opponent and the percentage of a probable home, away or draw result. Everton are showing as a 55% chance of a home win. Lets look at the actual stats.

  • Everton P6, W4, D1, L1, Scored 12, Conceded 6
  • Cardiff P5, W0, D1, L4, Scored 2, conceded 11

All of a sudden the 55% is looking good. This influenced my transfer this week. I had already done my free transfer but when I saw B.Silva was not playing I decided to go for Richarlison and take a four point hit, but I’m expecting a goal fest at Goodison park :).

I have done lots of work on the data model so expect some good charts over the coming weeks as now I can concentrate on the visuals.

Anyway its back to the data.

 

 

Musings over week 12 picks

In an earlier post I mentioned selling Salah and Aguero to free up funds, well, after some playing with stats I have predicted the season ending scores for the various positions. Currently this is in beta so subject to change. Here are my findings.

My current goalies will end up as 4th and 10th, so I can leave them for now.

I have three of the top six defenders.

I have three of the top six Midfielders

I have one of the top five forwards.

I also have a player that has hardly played so bench boost will be fun.

Even if I sell Salah or Aguero I cant get in the players I need, oh well,  I could sell Salah and B.Silva and re-invest in Sterling and Mane. Decisions, I think I will wait till after this week.

I am expecting big things from Salah this week, considering Fulham have conceded 16 goals and Liverpool have scored 12 and Liverpool will want to bounce back from their midweek defeat I want to see 5, a Salah hattrick would be nice. Should I do a free hit and include Firmino and Mane for this week, now that’s a thought.

More details on how I got to these figures will be explained in the coming weeks.

 

 

Week 12 – Big Decisions

The joys of deciding on transfers each week takes some time. The decision this week is do I sell one of the big players to free up funds or stick with them. Not sure. Lets look at an option.

Sell Salah and Aguero and buy someone else, but whom. Both these players have home fixtures, Liverpool against Fulham and City against United.  The stats are also showing both players in the upturn so it may be best to wait another week, especially as international week is coming up.

I need to look at the data in more depth, I will update the blog tonight with more info and also my real options on whom I’m going for.

 

 

 

Post Week 10 analysis

Week 10 is over and the stats are coming in thick and fast. The new Power BI charts are hopefully going to give me some useful insights. As always I’m still going through the data so any inaccuracies are based on not fully tested data sets 🙂

This chart shows points by all positions by game weeks. Obviously with Power BI I can click the options to see different things.

This chart is showing overall points by teams. Some interesting things have come to light. Man United’s defence has come out as one of the worse performing defences in terms of points but their midfield is one of the best.

In this chart we can see the players, its quite busy mind you. Need some filters.

still some work to do but it is showing some good things.

I have also done some form guides based on the previous 4 games. If we look at defenders Doherty is still No 1 but that’s because of the two weeks he got 12 & 15.  Some work to do on this chart I believe.

If we look at Midfielders it looks a bit more accurate.  Some possible candidates for transfers here.  Hazard is still in 5th place even though he didn’t play this week.

I will take a look at the stats a little more before I actually make my decision on the transfers.

Lets look at two possible transfers. Is it worth a risk, possibly, but I will wait.

back to the stats.

 

 

 

 

 

Week 10

Week 10 is almost upon us and my weekly dilemma of who to transfer out and in. My really cheap forward stays for now as I cant get anyone better,and looking at the top 25 players for game week 6 to 9 dhows no bargains really. So this could be the first week I don’t do a transfer and do two next game week. Mind you I was tempted by Steve Cook out and Zabaleta in, but I’m not sure.

 

Over the next few weeks more stats are going to be blended to hopefully show some good stats so watch this space.

My captains choice is between the main three players in my team. Salah, Aguero or Hazard.

Hazard

Salah

Aguero

I’m going for Salah but according to the predictive stats Salah is due a bad week, but with Liverpool playing Home to Cardiff I’m over ruling the stats 🙂 Lets see what happens.

As I mentioned before blending additional data will include fixtures so hopefully team form will assist in predicting the results better.

Anyway its time to run some more stats