Well, its been an age since I last posted, In reality I have been busy building posh garden buildings and getting the data sorted so here is a brief look at what to expect.
The dashboard is a little plain at the moment but this will change. The new dashboards will highlight how players are doing against previous seasons. If we look at Mo Salah his ownership has gone from a high of 54% down to 45% but his stats are not far off last season, maybe the fact that Hazard is doing so well people are getting rid of Salah for Hazard. I’
I’m going to give it a few more weeks before I decide on what to do.
This is only a quick post but the next few will show some great stats which will help on player selection.
Well, I made my transfer and I went for a defender change. I almost held on for 2 transfers next week but I decided to go for it. I normally look forward a couple of weeks to look at the fixtures, but considering we are in the first few games I went for gut instinct, lets see how that works our 🙂
Looking at the stats and the news the vast movement appears to be based on Midfield and the change in ownership for KDB, he has dropped 9% since news broke about his injury and how long he could be out for. I compared him to three other midfielders and as you can see they went up by 2% in the same time.
Just a quick post as I’m still looking at the stats and working out which ones I want to show.
After an interesting game week I thought I would highlight 4 players who did well.
- Wan Bissaka -Crystal Palace, 12 points 90 minutes played.
- Richarlison – Everton, 14 points 85 minutes played.
- Neves – Wolves, 12 points 90 minutes played.
- Mane – Liverpool, 16 points 81 minutes played
Unfortunately I had none of these players in my team, and I was only talking about Richarlison on Friday and saying what a good buy he is for Everton. Going into game week 2 I wont do my normal thing and look at using the wildcard. After the first week I have ended up with 55 points, 2 points above the average, need to do better.
As we can see after their performances their ownership went up, by quite a lot. What’s interesting is each percentage point equate to almost 50,000 Fantasy League players.
If we look at Richarlison and Mane and the first 6 games of last season we can see that
- Richarlison scored 30 pts, scored 2 goals and 1 assist
- Mane scored 20 points, scored 3 goals
So both look set to get a better score after 6 games.
There are quite a few players that appear to be doing better so I need to spend some time on the stats and work out my subs.
So here is to happy stats crunching.
The first game of the new season is almost over. United winning 2-0, correction 2-1, Vardy just scored.
I wondered how many people had actually selected Shaw. He scored the second so I will be carefully watching his stats over the coming days to see how many transfer him in.
As of now (21.45) this is the stats, he is one of the popular United defenders even though the ownership is less than 4%.
Looking at the averages he normally averages less than 60 pts a season, I think this season will be better.
I never panic in the first few weeks as that is the time to find out who is starting well, mind you I have used my wildcard in the first 3 weeks over the last few seasons so maybe I do panic.
A quick look at the ownership stats for today and especially during the game. It seems harry Maguire is losing ownership whilst Luke Shaw is gaining.
Anyway the first game is over, United won 2-1, bring on the next 9 fixtures.
The last few days of tinkering before the start of the fantasy league normally means a frantic decision making process where the teams change numerous times. I even tried to get Kane, Salah & De Bruyne in the same team, but then the other players I had to compromise too much.
Looking at the stats for ownership it seems Sergio Agüero is the one most people are opting for. Since the Community Shield his ownership has more than doubled, whilst the others like Firmino are losing ownership.
I will spend the next few days analysing the data and fixtures before I finally lock in my selection for the first game.
Back to the stats and hopefully a clear definition of who I need will jump out at me.
Small posts as we enter the final week before the start of the fantasy league.
We are into the final few days before the season kicks off and I’m still tinkering. I’m trying to find that jewel that no one else has found. Currently the bargains are to be found with the teams that have been promoted. Two of the teams have invested heavily and the selections are swaying towards those teams.
The top three selected players from the promoted teams are:
- da Silva Neves-Rúben Diogo 14.40% Ownership
- Sessegnon-Ryan 11.30% Ownership
- Kamara-Aboubakar 10.90% Ownership
The top selected player from Cardiff is Connolly-Matthew and he has been selected by 1.8%
I think Fulham and Wolves can be top 10 contenders where Cardiff will struggle.
Away from the promoted team the player with the most movement this week is Sergio Agüero he has increased by 4.9% Ownership, its amazing what a couple of goals can do.
Currently the top 5 selected players are:
- Salah 52%
- Firmino 35.20%
- Kane 32.8%%
- Zaha 31.30%
- De Gea 29.40%
Interestingly Courtois has 5.90% Ownership and he is not training with Chelsea at the moment, I think he may be leaving.
More stats will be coming out and expect more dashboards.
The planning stage is almost over, the games are just around the corner the fun is about to begin. Over the coming weeks the new dashboards will be done and hopefully this season they will be bigger and better then ever. I’ve been working on some new stats to see if I can pick a better team to start with. The last few seasons I have used my wildcard in the first few weeks, mind you I won a few mini leagues last season so it wasn’t all bad.
My Captains pick was the thing that was good last season, and this was one of the reasons I did win some of the mini leagues I entered.
So.…..What are my tactics for this season?
- Pick a spine for my team made up of players that finished in the top 4 last season. This means expensive picks.
- Look at players who play in a different position to what they are shown in the fantasy league, so a defender that plays more forward.
- look at the new signings. Salah was fantastic last season 🙂
- Pick players for the bench that actually play.
- Look at the first six fixtures for the promoted teams to see if I can pick a bargain.
If we look at the promoted teams and who they are playing, my predictions are in brackets
- Away Bournemouth (D)
- Home Newcastle (W)
- Away Huddersfield (D)
- Home Arsenal (L)
- Away Chelsea (L)
- Home Man City (L)
- Home Crystal Palace (D)
- Away Spurs (D)
- Home Burnley (W)
- Away Brighton (W)
- Away Man city (L)
- Home Watford (W)
- Home Everton (W)
- Away Leicester (D)
- Home Man City (L)
- Away West Ham (D)
- Home Burnley (W)
- Away Man United (D)
Based on this I believe there could be bargains to have, but this is not guaranteed. In my initial 15 man squad I have 1 player from each promoted team.
Looking at all the teams I have a few selection headaches. Hopefully my Dashboards will help 🙂 Here are some of my headaches.
- De Bruyne or Sane or Sterling or Mahrez?
- Pickford or not for the main goalkeeper?
- Kane or salah as my big name signing? maybe both but this would mean almost a quarter of the budget on 2 players.
- Is it worth going for Arsenal players in the post Wenger era.
Its going to be a tense few weeks leading up to the kick off, but it will be fun.
The World Cup is over but we don’t have to wait long for the Premiership. The Fantasy League is already live and there will be some interesting choices as the transfer rumours turns into actual transfers, this also means the data needs to start crunching 🙂 I have done some initial data loads and I’m starting to look at the data to see what it tells me, I will keep you informed. I will be looking at the various position and comparing average values with last season to see what improvements players have had or where they have fell off.
One big decision is “Do you include Salah?”
His price has gone up by a massive amount, but I suspect most teams will include him, so tactically he may be one of those where you forget the price and include him. This will be one of those decisions that could make or break a season.
Anyway its back to the data crunching and see if I can pick a winning team.
Let the good times begin 🙂
Over the last few months I have been creating Fantasy Football data flows using Azure which allows me to automate the data flows. This has enabled me to start looking at what data is important. I’ve been concentrating on the Transfers just lately. So here is a Power BI dashboard which shows almost real time data (Data captured every 15 minutes)
In this dashboard I have the ability to look at various pieces of data:
- Transfer data. This allows me to see how big a player is expected to be in the coming game week.
- Goals and assists for those players. I can select the game weeks so I can select what I believe is the right amount of weeks to go back over, 3 to 6 appears to be the ‘good zone’.
- Remaining games details.
The actual Transfer section starts off at the team level then you drill down to players.
I love the capabilities of Power BI to drill down like this, it really gives you some options.
The whole dashboard becomes the selection options. If I actually select Teams or Positions only the data which meets that criteria will be shown, if I select something on the charts the rest stays there but looks opaque. Here I have selected Harry Kane as he wasn’t high up the charts for scoring/Assists.
The final part allows me to see the fixtures. Now this could be an interesting selection to highlight. Over the years I have observed that the first 6 and last 6 games of the season throws up the biggest surprises. Take this season, West Brom have beaten Man united and drew with Liverpool in the last few weeks, and they are in the relegation zone. Spurs have West Brom so I suspect that the players who are bringing in Harry Kane expect a big return, but could there be surprise.
I still have a lot of data to blend to get me to where I want to be, but I’m building up some good history, this at least gives me a good place to start.
Having the historical data allows me to change calculations and then apply the new settings to see what happens.
Roll on next season 🙂
In the last post I explained how I collect the data using Azure by means of Webjobs, event hubs etc, there is a simpler version. Python.
I’m still using Azure but this time I have a VM which has a series of Python scripts. These scripts are run at different times based on the requirements. The actual Architecture diagram looks like this.
Basically, I use Windows scheduler to run different Python scripts at various times.
- 5 minutes interval – These are used for up-to-date transfers of fantasy premier League players. The scripts extract the information from the json files and inserts it into a SQL db. My on prem SQL db runs a stored procedure at a predefined time which moves the data across then deletes the old records from the cloud. This enables me to keep the db in Azure at a decent size.
- Weekly interval – These are used to get the data based on points, minutes played, cards received etc. The new data is pulled across to an on prem db in the same way as the transfer data.
The Python scripts works in the following way.
- A main script is run via the schedule, this calls the specific Python files that reads the data. The DB connections are held in another Python file. This way I have one connection file which the others ‘IMPORTS’
We are at the tail end of the season, so all these scripts will be sued in ‘Anger’ next season. I have been using them mind you and I have found some good insights.
My team for wk34 which is a double game week I used some of this data to pick my players.
- Captain – Eriksen: 2 games and he has been doing well recently. So far he has scored 1 goal, so I should expect a decent return.
- GK – Schmeichel: 2 games so I took out WBA keeper for him, my other choice was Pickford so against Man Utd I would have never thought they would keep a clean sheet. Still 1 game to go for Kasper so I might get something. His points were slightly swayed by his penalty save.
My other players were my stalwarts which have been in there for a long time, mind you the City players didn’t return much, now they are champions maybe time for a change.
It’s an interesting time of the season for a few reasons.
- Premiership race is over, so it’s the next three places that are up for grabs, so Spurs, Liverpool, Man Utd and Chelsea players have it all to play for.
- Relegation is still not decided so teams will be fighting for their Premiership survival and expect unusual results Like Man Utd getting beat at Home by WBA.
I need to look at the fixtures and the stats together next. Next season this will be an automated process. I’m hoping to click on a button and it will give me a narrative on the coming weeks 🙂
Loads more to do really, the thing is the more data I look at the more data I want. Its like going round in circles 🙂